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中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所

2019-12-14 14:17  点击数:    admin

  2018-2019年世界经济形势阐明与展望

  YAOZHIZHONG

  2018NIANSHIJIEJINGJIZHENGTIZENGSUYUSHANGYINIANCHIPING,KESHIDADADOUGUODUCHENGXIANLEJINGJIZENGSUHUILUO。QUANQIUDEFUXIANLVRENGRANBAOCHIZAIDIWEI,CHONGSHIJIUYEZHUANGKUANGHEDAZONGSHANGPINJIAZHISHANGZHANGCUSHIGEGUOTONGHUOPENGZHANGLVYOUSUOTIGAO。TONGSHI,SHIJIEJINGJIHAIBIAOSHICHUGUOJISHANGYEZENGSUFANGHUAN、GUOJIZHIJIETOUZIGOUDANGDIMI、QUANQIUZHAIWUCHENGDUYILIANTIGAOHEJINRONGSHICHANGCHENGXIANDONGDANGDENGTEZHENG。2019NIANSHIJIEJINGJIZENGSUXIAXINGDEDAGAIXINGJIAODA,JINRONGSHICHANGDAGAIJINYIBUCHENGXIANMENGLIEDONGDANG,GEZHUYAOGUODUYINGDUIXIAYILUNJINGJISHUAITUIDEZHENGCEKONGJIANSHOUDAOXIANZHI,SHANGYEZHANHENIQUANQIUHUAQUSHIHAIHUIDAILAIJIAODAFUMIANYINGXIANG。GULIANG2019NIANSHIJIEJINGJIZENGZHANGLVYUEWEI3.5%。 

  世界经济总体形势

  2018NIANSHIJIEGDPZENGZHANGLVANGOUZHILIPINGJIA(PPP)JIJIAOYUEWEI3.7%、ANSHICHANGHUILVJIJIAOYUEWEI3.2%。ZENGSUYUSHANGYINIANCHIPING。2017NIANSHIJIEGDPZENGZHANGLVCONG2016NIANDE3.3%KUAISUSHANGSHENGDAOLE3.7%,TIGAOFUDUDA0.4GEBAIFENDIAN。2018NIANBINGMEIYOUYILIANZHEIZHONGGDPZENGZHANGLVKUAISUTIGAODEQUSHI。ZONGTILAIKAN,SHIJIEJINGJIBIAOSHICHUBAGETEZHENG。

  (一)经济增速呈现下行迹象

  2018NIANSHIJIEJINGJIZENGZHANGBINGMEIYOUYILIAN2017NIANGEGUOTONGBUQIANGJINGHUISHENGDESHITOU,CHUMEIGUODENGSHAOSHUJINGJITIDEZENGSUJICHENGSHANGSHENGZHIWAI,QITADABUMENJINGJITIDEJINGJIZENGSUCHENGXIANLEHUILUO。GUOJIQIANBIJIJINZUZHIYUCESHUJUXIANSHI,2018NIANSHIJIEGDPZENGZHANGLVYU2017NIANGENJICHIPING。GEZHONG,2018NIANFAJIAJINGJITIGDPZENGSUWEI2.4%,BI2017NIANSHANGSHENG0.1GEBAIFENDIAN;XINXINGSHICHANGYUCHENGZHANGZHONGJINGJITIGDPZENGSUWEI4.7%,YU2017NIANYIZHI。GUOJIQIANBIJIJINZUZHIDEZONGLIANGSHUJUYANGAILEDABUMENJINGJITIZENGSUHUILUODESHISHI,QIEDAGAIGAOGULE2018NIANSHIJIEGDPSHIJIZENGZHANGLV。

  ZAIZHUYAOFAJIAJINGJITIZHONG,ZHIYOUMEIGUOJINGJIZENGSUBIAOSHICHUSHANGSHENGQUSHI,OUYUANQUHERIBENDENGQITAJINGJITIJUNCHENGXIANZENGSUHUILUOXIANXIANG。2018NIANMEIGUOGDPZENGZHANG2.9%,BI2017NIANTIGAO0.7GEBAIFENDIAN。OUYUANQUGDPZENGZHANG2.0%,BI2017NIANXIAJIANG0.4GEBAIFENDIAN。RIBENGDPZENGZHANG1.7%,BI2017NIANXIAJIANG0.6GEBAIFENDIAN。YINGGUOHEJIANADADEGDPZENGZHANGLVBI2017NIANBIELIXIAJIANG0.3HE0.9GEBAIFENDIAN。

  XINXINGSHICHANGYUCHENGZHANGZHONGJINGJITI2017NIANCHENGXIANLEJINGJIZENGSUPUBIANHUISHENG,DAN2018NIANMINGMINGFENHUA。YAZHOUXINXINGJINGJITIRENGRANBAOCHILESHIJIESHANGZUIGAODEZENGZHANGLV,2018NIANGDPZENGZHANG6.5%。DANCHUYINDUDENGSHAOSHAOSHUGUODUZHIWAI,QITAZHUYAOYAZHOUXINXINGJINGJITIJUNYOUBIRANSHUIPINGDEJINGJIZENGSUHUILUO。YINDUGDPZENGZHANGLVCONG2017NIANDE6.7%SHANGSHENGDAO2018NIANDE7.3%,ERZHONGGUOGDPZENGZHANGLVCONG6.9%XIAJIANGDAO6.6%GEXIA,YINNI、MALAIXIYA、FEILVBIN、XINJIAPOHETAIGUODENGDONGMENGWUGUODEZHENGTIGDPZENGZHANGLVCONG5.4%XIAJIANGDAO5.3%。XINXINGYUCHENGZHANGZHONGOUZHOUDIYUJINGJIZENGSUZAI2018NIANCHENGXIANDAFUDUXIAJIANG,GDPZENGZHANGLVCONG2017NIANDE6.0%XIAJIANGZHI2018NIANDE3.8%。GEZHONGTUERQIYINSHOUJINGJIZHICAIHEQIANBIWEIJIYINGXIANG,JINGJIXINGSHIMINGMINGEHUA,QIGDPZENGZHANGLVCONG2017NIANDE7.4%DAFUXIAJIANGZHI2018NIANDE3.5%。LAMEIHEJIALEBIDIYUDUOGEGUODUCHENGXIANJINGJIDONGDANG,GAIDIYUZHENGTIGDPZENGZHANGLVCONG2017NIANDE1.3%XIAJIANGDAO2018NIANDE1.2%。GEZHONGAGENTINGCONG2.9%XIAJIANGDAO-2.6%,WEINEIRUILACONG-14.0%JINYIBUXIAJIANGZHI-18.0%。ZAILAMEIDIYU,BAXIJINGJIJINYIBUHAOZHUAN,QIGDPZENGZHANGLVCONG2017NIANDE1.0%TIGAODAO2018NIANDE1.4%。SHOUSHIYOUJIAZHIHUISHENGYINGXIANG,ZHONGDONGBEIFEIDIYUHEELUOSIJINGJICHENGXIANLEBIRANSHUIPINGDEHUISHENG。ZHONGDONGBEIFEIDIYUDEGDPZENGZHANGLVCONG2017NIANDE2.2%SHANGSHENGDAO2018NIANDE2.4%;ELUOSIGDPZENGZHANGLVCONG2017NIANDE1.5%QINGWEIHUISHENGDAO2018NIAN1.7%。KESHIYILANGCONGTOUSHOUDAOMEIGUOZHICAI,JINGJIXINGSHIZAIYICIEHUA,QIGDPZENGZHANGLVCONG2017NIANDE3.7%XIAJIANGZHI2018NIANDE-1.5%。

  (二)赋闲率保持低位运行

江苏快三  JINLIANGSHIJIEJINGJICHENGXIANLEZENGSUXIAXINGJIXIANG,KESHICHUSHAOSHUJINGJIXINGSHIYANZHONGEHUADEXINXINGSHICHANGGUODUZHIWAI,QUANQIUZONGTISHANGCHUYUFUXIANLVXIANGDUIJIAODIDESHIQI。ZHEIZHONGZHUANGKUANGBIAOBAISHIJIEJINGJICHUYUCONGFANRONGDIANFENGFANGCAICHENGXIANHUILUOJIXIANGDEJIEDUAN。

江苏快三  MEIGUOFUXIANLVYILIANXIAJIANG。2018NIAN11YUEMEIGUOFUXIANLVWEI3.7%,DUIBI2017NIAN11YUE,XIAJIANGLE0.5GEBAIFENDIAN,WEIJINRONGWEIJIYILAIDEZUIDIDIAN。MEIGUOLAODONGSHICHANGDENULIBIANGEYEBIAOCIKERENWEIBIANGESHANG。MEIGUOSIYINGQIYEQUANBUYUANGONGPINGJUNSHIXINCONG2017NIAN9YUEDE26.51MEIYUANTIGAODAOLE2018NIAN9YUEDE27.25MEIYUAN,PINGJUNZHOUXINCONG909.29MEIYUANTIGAODAOLE937.40MEIYUAN,ZHANGFUBIELIWEI2.8%HE3.1%。KESHI,MEIGUODELAODONGCANJIALVBINGMEIYOUGENZHEFUXIANLVXIAJIANGHERENWEISHANGSHENGERSHANGSHENG,2018NIANYIZHIZAI62.7%ZHI63%ZHIJIANDIANBO。

  OUZHOUDELAODONGLISHICHANGYECHUZAIYILIANGAIJINJINCHENGZHIZHONG,DANGAIJINSUDUQUHUAN。OUMENGZHENGTIFUXIANLVYIJINGCONG2017NIAN9YUEDE7.5%XIAJIANGDAOLE2018NIAN9YUEDE6.7%,OUYUANQUFUXIANLVCONG2017NIAN9YUEDE8.5%XIAJIANGDAOLE2018NIAN9YUEDE8.1%。OUZHOUFUXIANRENSHUTAOTAIFUDUHEFUXIANLVXIAJIANGSUDUYOUSUOJIANHUAN。CONG2016NIAN9YUEDAO2017NIAN9YUE,OUMENGFUXIANRENSHUTAOTAI220.4WANREN,FUXIANLVXIAJIANG0.9GEBAIFENDIAN,OUYUANQUFUXIANRENSHUTAOTAILE154.7WANREN,FUXIANLVXIAJIANGLE1.0GEBAIFENDIAN;ERCONG2017NIAN9YUEDAO2018NIAN9YUE,OUMENGFUXIANRENSHUJINTAOTAI179.3WANREN,FUXIANLVJINXIAJIANG0.8GEBAIFENDIAN,OUYUANQUFUXIANRENSHUJINTAOTAILE130.9WANREN,FUXIANLVXIAJIANGFUDUYESUOXIAOZHI0.4GEBAIFENDIAN。